CIFP 2019 Ukraine Conflict Diagnostic

With 13,000 dead and 30,000 wounded, the Ukrainian crisis remains pertinent moving into 2019. Commanding the interest of stakeholders on both sides of the globe, this is a crisis that does not show any signs of slowing down. Caught between two monoliths of economic influence, Ukraine has seen ethnic and nationalist divisions be exacerbated following a rejected free trade agreement with the EU in 2013. Since then, separatist movements have gained significant traction in the region of Donbas, and Crimea has been annexed by the Russian Federation. Ukraine has endeavored to regain control of these territories and has been met with armed resistance. Russia, in particular, has moved to provide military and economic aid to the Donbas separatists. Analyzing structural data and recent events, this report aims to provide an objective assessment of what has informed the Ukrainian conflict. Ultimately, this report maintains that Russian aggression, economic interdependence, and political instability/meddling are the primary factors of sustained conflict in this region. These findings are premised upon the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Project (CIFP) and were arrived at by utilizing its categorical risk assessment mechanism.

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